February 2012
1 post
December 2011
3 posts
November 2011
3 posts
“Mathematicians are like Frenchmen: whatever you say to them, they translate it...”
– Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832)
October 2011
9 posts
Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong: Scientific... →
“When you have to keep recalibrating a model, something is wrong with it,”
Laszlo Birinyi talks markets, protests, Apple... →
“One of the dark secrets of the market is we don’t really do much research on Wall Street,” he said. “I started off on the trading desk. I worked at my job. There were a lot of people who really…
Economics has met the enemy, and it is economics -... →
The confusion is understandable, and deliberate, according to Philip Mirowski, an economic historian at the University of Notre Dame. “It’s part of the PR trick,” Prof. Mirowski argues. Awarding the economics prize immediately after the prizes for physics, chemistry and medicine helps to place economics on the same level as those other natural sciences.
Jonah Lehrer on Daniel Kahneman's New Book | Head... →
Even when we know why we stumble, we still find a way to fall.
A formula for justice | Law | The Guardian →
Lawyers call this type of mistake the prosecutor’s fallacy, when people confuse the odds associated with a piece of evidence with the odds of guilt.
Innovation Starvation | World Policy Institute -... →
“Any strategy that involves crossing a valley—accepting short-term losses to reach a higher hill in the distance—will soon be brought to a halt by the demands of a system that celebrates short-term…
September 2011
12 posts
The production of innocence →
“[I]s that editorializing? No. It’s evaluating the evidence. Reporting! You know– journalism! But when you don’t have time to do that… or you lack the knowledge required… or you’re fearful of the…
xpostfactoid: Our next Great Communicator →
1) constantly impugn your opponents’ motives by insinuation; 2) shamelessly misrepresent their policies; 3) tag existing federal programs and functions with inflammatory and manifestly inaccurate…
WatchOh, the Jobs You’ll Create! from Marketplace.
The statistical error that just keeps on coming |... →
1 tag
9 tags
“Fallacies are not simply crazy ideas. They are usually both plausible and...”
– Thomas Sowell, Economic Facts and Fallacies (via isomorphismes)
jayrosen:
Journalists Washing Their Hands of...
What’s remarkable is that the Journal does not... →
“as far as I can tell, lots of people still take the editorial page’s pronouncements seriously, even though it seems likely that you could have made a lot of money by betting against whatever that…
Economist's View: It's *Not* Regulatory and Tax... →
The odd thing is, when businesses are asked why they’re not expanding, “high taxes” and “heavy regulatory burdens” and “tax uncertainty” don’t feature as prominent answers. They mostly say they don’t…
August 2011
4 posts
So What? Part Two « The Baseline Scenario →
…I think the whole thing is preposterous. S&P downgrading the United States is like Consumer Reports downgrading Coca-Cola. Consumer Reports is a great institution. For example, if you want to know how reliable a 2007 Ford Explorer is going to be, they have done more research than anyone to figure out the reliability history of every single vehicle. Those ratings are a real public service,...
“Imagine, if you will, someone who read only the Wall Street Journal editorial...”
– Could it be that our enemies were right?, by Bush speechwriter David Frum.
July 2011
4 posts
“We only control what we ultimately find ridiculous, only if we find the world...”
– Thomas Bernhard, Old Masters (via hotparade) (via itnumberpi) (via citiesofsound)
“I think we have to get to a time in which people are embarrassed to pretend to...”
– Sam Harris, Ask Sam Harris Anything #1 Sam was asked: “What should we do next? I feel like I’m adrift in a sea of rationality with no clear goal in sight. What do you think are practical goals for a passionate pro-reasoning activist, especially those still in college?” (via therecipe)
Half of Americans Getting Government Aid Swear... →
Half of people getting federal student loans don’t think they’ve ever used a government social program. Forty percent of Medicare recipients have no idea their health insurance is funded by the state. And 25 percent of the people receiving that emblem of All That Is Bad About Big Government, welfare, don’t connect that paycheck to the “enemy.” Given the fact that one in six Americans use...
June 2011
2 posts
May 2011
2 posts
April 2011
2 posts
March 2011
3 posts
February 2011
2 posts
December 2010
3 posts
“Extensive interviews with money managers have led him to posit that because...”
– Economists’ Grail: A Post-Crash Model
“Both liberals and conservatives followed their parties, even when their parties...”
– The political psychology of Mitch McConnell — and the rest of us
More:So when Democrats were said to favor the stringent welfare reform, for example, liberals went right along. Three scary sentences from the piece: “when reference group information was available, participants gave no...
Beware the ‘Fluffy’ Story →